My 2004 Predictions Report Card

Back in December 2003, I blogged my predictions for 2004, Part I and Part II. Later, I added my 2004 resolutions. Let’s see how I did. (My 20/20 hindsight is** in bold**.) PREDICTIONS: Economy The US economy will continue to expand at the fast pace since the Reagan administration through the second quarter. While new home construction will slow, service and other sectors will more than take its place. Unemployment will improve in fits and starts, but it will be more than half a percentage point lower by the end of the second quarter as the economy creates 100,000 more jobs than existed at the peak in April 2000. The Dow will close above 12,000 and the NASDAQ above 2500 by the end of July. The media will begin concentrating on “underemployment” and working poor, finding no other negative economic news to talk about. The federal budget deficit, according to the CBO, will begin to shrink in 2005. Japan’s economy helps the US and European economies, but other factors keep France and Germany in a Carteresque recession of malaise.

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