My 2004 Predictions Report Card

Back in December 2003, I blogged my predictions for 2004, Part I and Part II. Later, I added my 2004 resolutions. Let’s see how I did. (My 20/20 hindsight is** in bold**.)


The US economy will continue to expand at the fast pace since the Reagan administration through the second quarter. While new home construction will slow, service and other sectors will more than take its place. Unemployment will improve in fits and starts, but it will be more than half a percentage point lower by the end of the second quarter as the economy creates 100,000 more jobs than existed at the peak in April 2000. The Dow will close above 12,000 and the NASDAQ above 2500 by the end of July. The media will begin concentrating on “underemployment” and working poor, finding no other negative economic news to talk about. The federal budget deficit, according to the CBO, will begin to shrink in 2005. Japan’s economy helps the US and European economies, but other factors keep France and Germany in a Carteresque recession of malaise.

Well, the jobs number was close, but I was way off on the Dow and NADAQ. I was wrong on Japan, but France and Germany were close. My deficit projections, like the government’s, were too optimistic.

Jacko will be tried and convicted on some minor child abuse or endangerment charge, but he’ll escape the most serious charges. The pack of lies he spewed to Ed Bradley will be his undoing, as his attorneys try desperately and unsuccessfully to quash the video of the 60 Minutes piece. Madonna will do something outrageous. Alec Baldwin will embarrass himself with his mouth.

The Jacko trial drags on. Who knows anymore. I was right about Alec Baldwin, but how hard was that to call?

The terrorism in Iraq will subside substantially after a major