WTF Was That?
What if we had a mid-term election and nobody showed up?
It’s late, it’s depressing, and I’ve been drinking.
Time to write!
So the Great Red Wave turned out to be a pink elephant. The GOP establishment got their way: they thwarted a Republican MAGA surge. Rove and McConnell took a dive, and it’s hard to win a gang fight with your supposed leaders lying on the canvas with a fake wound.
At 10:52 PM CST on November 8, 2022, it looks like the Democrats will retain control of the Senate and the House is now iffy. The polls were wrong. The pundits were wrong. It’s time to evaluate.
First, according to master statistician Richard Baris, the People’s Pundit, non-college educated white males did not vote. In other words, the classic Trump voter didn’t vote because Trump wasn’t on the ballot. That actually makes sense. If that’s the case, it’s really bad news for the GOP. It means that Republicans cannot win big elections without Trump’s coattails. His endorsement isn’t enough.
I wrote about the missing white voter in 2015, and it’s very important to understand how important this demographic is to Republican victory. READ THIS POST NOW:
But tonight is no time for bitter recriminations. It’s time to take a stroll down memory lane, where we find that victory is just around the corner. Tonight’s disappointment is not bad news. It’s potentially great news. Sit back and listen to a little tale.
A few days ago, I wrote about 1994, when Newt Gingrich and the Contract for America returned the US House to the Republicans for the first time since the Korean War. What a night. Some of you might remember that night. If you don’t, here’s a little reminder.
Ah, 1994. What a win.
And then what happened?
Well, what happened then was 1996. Bill Clinton was an unpopular, failed president in 1996, but he managed to beat the pants off Bob Dole and my hero Jack Kemp. His presidency would remain mired in controversy, but he got a second term. Our 1994 victory produced some good legislation, but they all happened between that Red Wave and 1996. Clinton used his mid-term humiliation to set the stage for 1996. He moved the middle, won, and stopped Newt’s program in its tracks. Republicans won no major victories after 1996.
The Red Wave of 1994 broke too soon. But what about the 2010 Tea Party wave?
In 2010, the Tea Party picked the GOP off the canvas and carried it to the largest legislative seat shift since the Civil War. We rebuked Obama, took away his Congress, and put the world on notice that the Tea Party had legs.
And then what happened?
Well, this wasn’t so long ago, so you remember. America re-elected Barack Obama in 2012, beating the useless Mitt Romney even worse that he beat John McCain in the middle of George Bush’s depression. And the worst of Obama was yet to come.
To summarize, recent Republican waves in mid-term of a Democrat’s first term resulted in the Democrat’s second term during which the republic lost ground. They were pyrrhic victories.
Now, let’s go back to the last Democrat president who was so bad everybody knew the Democrat Party was dead.
The year was 1978, and the president was Jimmy Carter. Inflation was almost 8 percent. The Fed Funds rate was 11.78 percent. Jim Jones got a lot of people to drink poison rather than return to Jimmy Carter’s America. And, in Iran, an obscure Ayatollah, inspired by the weakness of the US president, was preparing to overthrow the Shah. It was a year of malaise, Soviet expansion, and US decline.
Shockingly, the Democrats did very well in the 1978 mid-term election. On the surface, the Democrats outperformed historical averages. Republicans gained 15 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate, but fell well short of taking over either house. Democrats and the media painted the election as a win.
Under the surface, both the Democrats and Republicans who enter the Congress the following year were dramatically more conservative than the men they replaced. Newt Gingrich was one of them. Additionally, moderate Democrats like Dick Gephardt of Missouri ascended in Congress, as the party realized it needed to set a more moderate tone.
Following the 1978 midterm, America was divided and angry. Though most Americans believed the country was on the wrong track, they didn’t have the gumption to put Republicans in charge of Congress. Inflation, crime, interest rates, recessions, diplomatic disasters, and cultural decline seemed to have mired the country on slope of permanent decline.
And that Republican disappointment in 1978 set the stage for the triumph of Ronald Reagan in 1980.
It took another two years of Jimmy Carter, including the Iran Hostage Crisis, to solidify the need for radical change in the American electorate. On November 4, 1980, we learned the results of the election between dinner and desert. Ronald Reagan, a former actor and governor of California, would be the 40th President of the United States. America was ready for a return to simpler times, traditional values, peace, and prosperity. We were wanted a strong military that we’d never use. We wanted the America that the Gipper painted with his speeches and head nods.
I can’t guarantee that 2022 will result in the next Ronald Reagan, but I can promise that wave elections don’t guarantee long-term change. Ronald Reagan changes America and the world for the better for 30 years. We got along better, we looked forward to our futures, and we loved our country.
I know you’re disappointed in tonight’s results. I am, too. But history tells us that wave elections in the first term of a Democrat administration prolong the agony and accelerate the decline. Rather than raging against the machine, let’s say a Rosary and pray for another Reagan. Fight local, beginning with your own life, then your own home, then. your own neighborhood. For most of us, that’s overwhelming.
Give unto Caesar what is Caesar’s; give unto God what is God’s. Jesus is the answer, and we have a chance to make America a proper home for our Lord and Savior. If we focus on that, we cannot lose.
God bless you. I love you. And, much more importantly. Jesus loves you as His brother or sister. The future has never been brighter.
Let’s go out there and win one for the Gipper.