Early in the pandemic—February and March 2020—I scoured the web for Nassim Taleb’s wisdom. Taleb is an expert on risk and probabilistic reasoning. He coined the phrase “black swan” to describe tail risk events that are impossible to predict simply because the category is unknown to those assessing risk. Published in 2007,
I believe in his Fooled by Randomness 1st published mid 2001 he talked about a Black Swan event of a plane running into a building, getting a jump on 9/11 by a few months, making him look like a savant to everyone who exactly didn’t grasp his point.
COVID is not his 1st instance of getting infatuated with really bad science - the man does love him some Black Swan fear porn. He’s been very big on the “better assume climate change is real just in case.” Due to his massive ego, he simply shuts down anyone who brings up plausible counter arguments.
Having said that, his books are absolute “must read.”