April 4, 2021

3635 words 18 mins read

This Is What Will Happen

This Is What Will Happen

This Is What Will Happen

What I have to say will not sit well with you. It will not sit well because you have already felt it yourself. You hope that feeling is wrong, that you are misinterpreting it.

I am here to tell you, the sick feelings and your interpretations of them are real. Sorry.

These feelings, I know, are vague. We do not receive clear images of what is to come, but murky sensations. Oh, to have dreams a clear as those of the Pharaoh, the ones Joseph interpreted about the putrid cows gobbling up the sleek and fat cows and the sickly grain devouring the plump grain. Those dreams would be like 4K TV compared to the feelings rumbling around in the bowels of our psyches.

Let me see if this sounds like the feeling you have: things are not right, and they are going to get worse.

We should put this down as a given: Things are going to get worse.

Now, what about your role in all this bad stuff?

You might be thinking, “I should have done more.” On this, you would be wrong. At least, mostly wrong.

One more Tea Party would not have changed our destiny. Nor one more door knocked, nor one more phone called, nor one more email sent, nor one more Facebook meme shared. None of that would have averted what is coming.

Nor could you have prevented the deluge by attending one more workshop, read one more book, joined one more study group, or participated in one more webinar.

The work you’ve done to save Christendom and, with it, self-governance have not been wasted. Nor will future such actions be wasted. We have a duty to keep fighting. As Article II of the old Code of Conduct for POWs states:

I will never surrender of my own free will. If in command, I will never surrender the members of my command while they still have the means to resist.

At some moments of history for people in certain situations, living to fight another day is not an option. This is one of those moments for most of us.

But that feeling and you and I have in the pit of our stomachs tell us that we may have already been surrendered by turncoats and cowards in command. Without our knowing it. We feel like we are already prisoners of war.

Now, we turn to Article III of the Code of Conduct:

If I am captured I will continue to resist by all means available. I will make every effort to escape and to aid others to escape. I will accept neither parole nor special favors from the enemy.

Therefore, continue to resist, evade, and defy. Refuse parole or special favors from the enemy. Help others to escape.

Escape what?

The remainder of this post will explain what is coming, what we must prepare to escape.

Allegiances Will Soon Change

The faction in America we call “conservative” is about to shrink and is already shrinking.

You don’t want to hear this any more than I enjoy writing it. But it’s true.

And this shrinkage will not be a small, incremental falling off of a few on the fringe. The vast majority of people who consider themselves “conservative” will defect within the year.

Why would they do this? Why would the men and women who have fought alongside us for decades suddenly switch to the other side?

They will not exactly “switch” to the other side. They will simply fall away.

They will fall away because of a simple but well-established law of persuasion, best explained by the ultimate guru of persuasion, Dr. Robert Cialdini, writing on the principle of “consistency”:

Normally, we want to be (and to be seen) as consistent with our existing commitments—such as the previous statements we’ve made, stands we’ve taken, and actions we’ve performed.1

In other words, people strive to make future behaviors consistent with past behaviors. We do not like being seen as flippant.

But there two important details of consistency we must understand to see why many conservatives will soon hop off the Trump Train.

First, the hierarchy of behaviors. Some past behaviors drive a stronger need for consistency than others. And that hierarchy goes like this:

  1. Actions we’ve performed trump
  2. stands we’ve taken which trump
  3. statements we’ve made.

It looks like this:

Actions trump Stands which trump Statements.

Actions trump Stands which trump Statements.

You know this is true. Suppose you have talked for months about how much you would like to own a Nissan Maxima. You just love that car. Your friends and co-workers have heard you say many times, “My next car is going to be a Nissan Maxima.” Those are statements.

When an opportunity comes along to buy your father’s two-year-old Mazda 6, which is very similar to a Maxima, at a ridiculous price, you pass. “Nope. I’m holding out until I can afford a new Maxima, Dad. But, thanks.” That’s taking a stand.

Now, a few month later, your mechanic gives you some bad news. “The transmission’s shot, and a rod is bent. Fixing it would cost way more than the car is worth.” To make matters worse, you still haven’t saved enough to buy a Maxima. You couldn’t afford the payments on the loan you’d need. And your trade-in is now worth zero.

In desperation, you crawl back to your dad. He holds nothing against you and sells you his Mazda 6 with terms only a father would give.

You would have no problem explaining your inconsistency to your friends. You needed a car desperately, you couldn’t afford a new Maxima, and your dad helped you out. When you look at the facts, it doesn’t even look inconsistent.

But what happens next? Do you continue to say, “my next car will be a new Maxima?”

Probably not. Why? Because actions speak louder than words, especially to the person doing the acting and speaking.

Your brain does the math for you:

  1. You claimed allegiance to the Maxima.
  2. But you bought a Mazda 6.
  3. Therefore, you were never really a Maxima person.

Your brain must rationalize this way in order to be consistent with itself. The action of buying the Mazda involved more parts of the brain than your statements about a Nissan. Your body was heavily involved in buying and taking ownership of the Mazda. Your brain has no memory of buying and taking ownership of a Nissan.

In short, one simple action provides your brain with irrefutable evidence that you are, in fact, a Mazda person now, and you never really were a Nissan person.

Further, because you own a Mazda, you research your new car online. You learn about the great features of the car. You join a Mazda 6 owners group. You buy new, laser-cut floor mats and join a carwash club to protect your investment.

You begin to notice other Mazda 6s on the highway, and you feel a touch of kinship with their drivers. If another Mazda 6 cuts you off, your initial fury subsides quickly when you notice that the offending driver is in a Mazda 6—like yours.

Actions speak louder than words. Speaking is a kind of action, but it takes little effort and, therefore, affects few parts of the brain. Taking a stand requires more deliberation and more energy, therefore, makes a stronger implant on the brain. But complex mental and physical actions dwarf speeches and stands in rewiring the circuitry of the human brain. That is why actions speak louder than words.

(Holding a pencil crosswise in your teeth can make you happier.2 This fact is more evidence that even small physical actions change the way our brains function. Often, mood and feelings result from our physical actions, not the other way around. Read about it here.)

Secondly, recency (technically known as the “availability heuristic”) influences consistency. We tend to strive consistency with our more recent actions compared to more distant actions or words.

This, too, is obvious. Twenty years ago, I was an avid running. I ran about three miles every day. I urged my friends to run. I read running magazines and spent too much money on running shoes. Now, I lift weights and pull on a rowing machine for exercise.

My next action related to exercise is more likely to be lifting weights or rowing than running. If asked what I consider the best form of exercise, I would say heavy lifting. Even though I spent more time as a running than as a lifter, I associate myself with the more recent actions. To do otherwise would seem insane.

And that is also why millions of conservatives are about to leave the fold.

Most People Will Get a COVID Vaccine No Matter What They Say

The reality is that most people will get one of the COVID vaccines in the next six months. And many of those people will have already stated or taken a stand against the vaccine, against vaccine passports, against masks, and against all things associated with the virus.

Those who behave (take the jab) in opposition to their previous statements (“I will not take the jab”) will do so to be consistent with other previous statements and actions. We should not judge them too harshly.

Very likely, those who refuse to take the jab or who refuse to prove they’ve taken it will be denied entry into almost everywhere. They will not be allowed into their place of work. They will not be allowed into stores. They will not be allowed into movie theaters or sports venues or concerts. They may not even be allowed into churches. They will not be allowed to vote in person. What’s worse: they will be ostracized by family and friends.

Ostracization is one of the most powerful forms of psychological and physiological torture. Exile is usually considered one step down from execution, and history shows many people have chosen death over isolation.

Moreover, think of the values held by conservatives and the very people who have spoken against these experimental gene therapy shots. More than likely, they pride themselves on:

  • Caring for their families
  • Being self-sufficient
  • Being involved in their communities and churches

As such, their brains have been wired over the years. They work hard to give their families good homes in safe neighborhoods with sufficient food and comfort. They have contributed to the success of the companies they’ve worked for. They have never taken welfare or assistance of any kind. They help out at church events and when a tragedy strikes.

If they refuse the jab, that consistent character they’ve spent a lifetime building goes away. Suddenly, they are out of their homes and out of work. They are homeless and ineligible even for handouts from a food pantry.

UK will require vaccine passport to work. US will follow.

UK will require vaccine passport to work. US will follow.

Now, we have a conflict. They can be consistent with the people they’ve been their entire lives, or they can be consistent with their anti-COVID-vaccine rhetoric of the past few months. Which character do you think will win with most people?

(I’m not saying you. Think about 5 people you know who share your views on the vaccine. How many of them, facing the possibility of dying in the streets, will take the vaccine?)

Now, think back to the mental process that happens after we take action. People who get the vaccine (and the passport that will soon follow) will use the vaccine to avoid the catastrophes caused by the vaccine passport mandates. Of course, they will. Why wouldn’t they? The reason they violated their own statements was to be able to avoid the consequences of not having a vaccine passport.

Every time they show their passport (or get the chip scanned), they will be reinforcing their new identity, just like the Mazda owner reinforced his identity as a Mazda owner every time he drove the car or even heard the word “Mazda.”

Repeated reinforcement of identity as a vaccinated person will also make them feel like a member of the vaccinated team. In their minds, they have some strong association with other people who have been vaccinated. They will research the positive aspects of being on the V-team. Out of psychological necessity, they begin to feel their decision to get vaccinated was a good decision, that other who made the same decision made the right decision, and, therefore, anyone who chose otherwise made an inferior decision.

Vaccinated people will begin to associate (mentally) with fellow passport-holders than with their old (former) Tea Party and Trump friends. Why? Recency and frequency. They will hear about the vaccine, the woes of those who refuse it, and the benefits of showing their passports. Just as I associate with (and trust?) weight-lifters more than I do runners (even though I used to be a runner.)

What Happens to the Holdouts?

While most people who make statements against the COVID vaccines will get them, some will not. Perhaps you are one of these. Let us look at how the near future might unfold for you.

First, we can see from recent CDC guidelines, with full support from airlines, that flying will be almost impossible for those who have not been vaccinated. You will be required to obtain tests before and after your trip, and you will have to quarantine for two weeks upon arrival at your destination, and again upon returning home. That means a one-hour flight from St. Louis to Kansas City for a one-hour meeting will take a month. You could walk it faster. Same goes for buses and Amtrak. And, while you could drive, you will still technically be required to do the 4-week quarantine.

Second, you will come under increasing pressure from your employer. You will likely be hit with a draconian health insurance surcharge of up to $200 a month. Or, you may be dropped altogether. You will be required to wear a mask whenever you’re on company property, including outside and in your car. You will not be allowed physically in meetings with others, so you’ll be joining from your desk on Zoom. Eventually, you will be asked to leave the company. If you don’t, you will be terminated. And, good luck finding a company that both needs your skills and defies government and insurance-company pressure to have a 100%-vaccinated workforce. (You’ll be hearing about this initiative very soon.)

Third, you will not be allowed to shop. Apple Pay, PayPal, Amazon, and Walmart are already preparing to require proof of vaccination in order to shop online, much less in a retail location. Grocery stores are already requiring masks far beyond local dictates. They, too, will bar entry for the non-vaccinated. You better enjoy gardening and raising chickens.

Fourth, homeowners associations and apartment management companies will get into the act. If you live in a subdivision or rent, you will probably be given a few months to get the jab or get out. (Without a job, this might happen sooner.) If you’re relying on the unlawful eviction moratorium, guess what? It won’t apply if the reason for the eviction is your refusal to get the shot.

All of these things will come about by this time in 2022, but most will start much sooner.

Meanwhile, your old friends (who don’t want to be around you now), will be enjoying the spoils of vaccination. The jobs vacated by holdouts will need to be filled. Wages will likely rise. They will be able to come and go as they please without masks. Mobile apps will allow them to “check in” to stores, restaurants, sporting events, and theaters without even pausing. (An alarm will sound if someone without the app, or without a vaccine, attempts to pass the sensors.)

In short, the holdouts will feel like (and be seen as) outsiders, as others, like foreigners.

And this is where our story gets interesting.

Vaccine Holdouts Will Resemble First-Century Christians

“They therefore that received his word, were baptized; and there were added in that day about three thousand souls. And they were persevering in the doctrine of the apostles, and in the communication of the breaking of bread, and in prayers. And fear came upon every soul: many wonders also and signs were done by the apostles in Jerusalem, and there was great fear in all. And all they that believed, were together, and had all things common. Their possessions and goods they sold, and divided them to all, according as every one had need. And continuing daily with one accord in the temple, and breaking bread from house to house, they took their meat with gladness and simplicity of heart; Praising God, and having favour with all the people. And the Lord increased daily together such as should be saved.” (Acts 2:41-47)

The holdouts will band together. Those who own land will open it to reasonable numbers of fellow holdouts to work the land and earn their keep, for those unwilling to work will not eat (2 Thessalonians 3:10). Yes, their new lives will scarcely resemble their old ones, but they will quickly find a peace they’d never experienced before. Free from the distractions of television, mobile phones, computers, bills to pay, errands to run, vacations to plan, they will find time to pray, help others, grow their food, raise livestock, build and maintain shelter, and live as man lived until about the late 18th century.

Soon, the idea of suing for a return to the larger society will seem foolish, even terrifying. Instead, they will ask only to be left alone. The world that rejected them for their obstinance will become to them “the old world.” And the old world will seem very old and dark.

Reflecting on the old world, the Holdouts (for they proudly and accidentally adopt the title “Holdouts”) remember it the way Digory thought of the dead city of Charn in C.S. Lewis’s The Magician’s Nephew:

The wind that blew in their faces was cold, yet somehow stale….Low down and near the horizon hung a great, red sun, far bigger than our sun. Digory felt at once that is was also older than ours: a sun near the end of its life, weary of looking down upon that world.3

Those so inclined will begin to speak and write their history: how they came to live as they do and to warn their children against the seductions of the old world. Removed from the distractions of the old world, the passport world, the will see clearly that even the most devout and faithful among them were seduced by modernism’s temptations. Before the passports, before the virus, they had all been living as machines plugged into a central and ungodly power source. Now, though, they were living as actual men.

Detached from the modern pharmaceutical world and its contraceptives, their numbers will grow very quickly. Education becoming a continuous practice with elders constantly teaching what they know, the young will marry young, in their mid-teens. Babies will abound in the safety of a tight community.

Gender roles will quickly return to historical norms, as the young women (what we call teenagers) raise their children with the help of older women (in their 30s). Men will spend most of their days together, working on buildings, wells, septic systems, hunting or raising livestock, fishing (for food), felling trees for a new home for a marrying couple, growing fruits and vegetables.

Yet, with so much to do, there will still be large amounts of time for prayer and education. Older men and women (those older than 50 or so) who are so gifted will spend much of their time teaching. Lessons and learning will range from practical skills like farming, husbandry, medicine, cooking, cleaning, and sowing, to science lessons in math, geology, astronomy, physics, and biology, to intellectual arts like rhetoric, philosophy, and literature.

When it comes to work and knowledge of how to live, children will come of age much faster than in the old world. But when it comes to innocence and wonder and imagination, these new young will remain children deep into their second decades of life. Contrasted with the young in the old world who have been given so much that their sights are aimed terribly low, the children of this new world, needing to work so hard just survive and help their families, will retain a constant sense of the infinite and of possibility.

News from the Old World, which the Holdouts craved insatiably in the early days of their exodus, is now greeted with annoyance, as if thinking about their old lives causes emotional pain. Not the pain of longing or nostalgia, but more like remembering the pain of trauma or terrible fear. The older Holdouts, when reminded, are overcome interiorly with pangs of regret over so many years spent worshipping the gods of that dying world. “How did I fall for that?” they ask themselves. “God, forgive me.”

Beyond these things, I cannot see. I do not know what happens to the Old World, but I suspect it ends up like C.S. Lewis’s fictitious city of Charn:

And on the earth, in every direction, as far as the eye could reach, there spread a vast city in which there was no living thing to be seen. And all the temples, towers, palaces, pyramids, and bridges cast long, disastrous-looking shadows in the light of that withered sun.

Choose wisely.

First Century Christians hearing the Gospel.

First Century Christians hearing the Gospel.


  1. Cialdini, Robert. Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade . Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition. ↩︎

  2. Strack F, Martin LL, Stepper S. Inhibiting and facilitating conditions of the human smile: a nonobtrusive test of the facial feedback hypothesis. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1988 May;54(5):768-77. doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.54.5.768. PMID: 3379579. ↩︎

  3. Lewis, C.S. The Magician’s Nephew. The Bodley Head, 1955. ↩︎