In six years, the present-day United States will find itself in one of three conditions:
- Marxist-totalitarian dictatorship masquerading as the United States.
- Dystopian failed state in a perpetual civil war.
- At least three distinct countries are functioning more or less successfully.
The reason for this forecast is simple: a large number of Americans have simply decided they no longer wish to be Americans. We will call this group the “defectors.” Let’s call non-defectors “loyalists.”
Why Now? #
Defectors exist in all levels of government and in every large metropolitan city in the country. The Departments of Justice, Defense, Health and Human Service, and State are run by defectors. Their titular heads might be loyalists, but the leaders of departments don’t “run” their departments and haven’t in decades. I’ll give you an example.
Bill Bennett, Ronald Reagan’s Secretary of Education, discovered after a year in office that he had no authority to change the department he oversaw. His only influence was with the public. Even changes to statutes could not change what the Department of Education did. “I might have my hand on the tiller,” Bennett said, “but it’s not attached to the rudder.”
In the 30 years since Bennett discovered his impotence as a Secretary of Education, the people who actually control the rudder have only tightened their grips on the federal departments. Thus, Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr exercised only nominal control over the Department of Justice. We’ve all seen it; it’s undeniable.
The people who actually run federal agencies are all defectors. They are all done with the burden of self-governance and long for a type of monarchy or oligarchy. Experts at court politics, these bureaucrats will excel in such a system, and they know it.
Beneath these bureaucrats lies a network of state and municipal defectors, at least in the big cities and throughout the upper East Coast and all of the West Coast. Pockets of loyalists in northern California and western Oregon and Washington state are exceedingly rare exceptions. They get noticed because they are so exceptional.
This network of lower-level defectors began their exit from self-governance with so-called “sanctuary” cities, counties, and states. That began a decade ago. Now, Washington, Oregon, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have effectively seceded. They are independent countries pretending to remain in communion with the United States.
We see this de facto secession undeniably in Oregon, where the governor has demanded the removal of all federal law enforcement so that his citizens can finish the job of reducing all federal buildings to rubble or homeless shelters.
I hate to break it to you, but Donald Trump cannot do anything about it because a large number of defectors in federal law enforcement and the military will simply refuse to obey lawful orders. Like Bill Bennett, Trump’s tiller doesn’t reach America’s rudder.
There are now, at most, 45 states in the union.
A Three-Way Breakup Would Be Least Disruptive #
Of the three likeliest scenarios (tyranny, dystopia, breakup), a breakup would leave present-day America least disturbed. The most important tenants of the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, would remain recognizable in all three new countries.
The reason is simple. Leftists want to abolish the Bill of Rights primarily because they don’t want to hear things they don’t agree with. They believe that saying anything they find disagreeable is an act of violence.
But the new countries would be composed primarily of people who agree with each other, at least the outset, and, at least, on broad issues. If everyone in America agreed with Antifa and BLM™, those groups would cherish the First Amendment. Because only a small fraction of Americans believe what they believe, they have given themselves the right injure or kill the 80 percent who disagree. They won’t have that problem in the new country they form.
While we’re at it, let’s stop referring to these leftists as Antifa or BLM™. They’re actually Marxists and Anarchists, with a few Karens and Country Club Republicans thrown in.
In fact, this might be a good time to give you Bill’s View of America.
Bill’s View of America #
Here are the major political groups I see in America:
|Party(ish)||Faction||% of US Pop.|
|Hank Hill||15 %|
If you can’t figure out the characteristics of these factions by their names, I don’t have time to explain it. And I probably couldn’t, anyway.
But the Inertia faction in the Democrat party probably needs some explanation. The Inertias are people who pretty much inherited their party affiliation from their family. They don’t really think about it. These are the frustrating people who agree with me on almost everything, then went out voted for Hillary Clinton.
I see less of this genetic politics among Republicans, but it’s most prevalent in the Country Club faction. Mitt Romney is an example of a closet Democrat who remains a Republic in name only because . . . his father did.
Now that we’ve named the political factions let’s give some names to the three new countries.
The New Americas #
Nuevo Amerigo is the leftist new country on the West coast. It will have a strong Latin influence in culture, but a strong alliance with China. (Mexico doesn’t want it.)
New New York is the leftist new country on the East coast. It will, ironically, be more like northeastern Virginia than New York, but the New Yorkers will argue so long and so loudly that everybody else will give up and let them call it “New New York.”
The Reunited States of America is the big right-leaning country in the middle. It will be very religious (mostly Christian, but with a substantial Jewish population. It will adopt the present US Constitution almost verbatim except for the 14th Amendment, which will be rewritten only to clog the “conduit” that the Supreme Court installed to bar prayer in public schools. The Reunited States might also specify that life begins at conception and remove any ambiguities implied in the Second Amendment, to wit: “Self-defense from criminals and tyranny being an unalienable right, the right keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”
I will live in the Reunited States. Luckily, I probably won’t have to move.
Geographic Realignment #
While no one knows precisely how things will unfold, I expect the new countries to look something like this:
I figure that in negotiations, people will agree that each country needs access to an ocean, that the states should be big enough to hold their demographics. Each country should be contagious, except for Alaska and Hawaii.
I also expect reasonable minds to divide up the US military more or less on a per capita basis. While this means the Reunited States would be twice as powerful as either Nuevo Amerigo or New New York, the latter two leftists countries will be strong allies. Together, they’ll start off slighter more potent than the Reunited States. Plus, the Reunited States has to defend four borders while the other two have to defend only three each. Besides, the leftists don’t believe in borders, so only the Reunited States will have to worry about border defense.
This distribution also has the advantage that each country gets at least one significant Navy base. While Nuevo Amerigo receives a lot of great military real estate, I expect they’ll be too stoned to maintain it for about a decade, after which those bases will look like Gary, Indiana.
Over time, of course, each country can invest as much as it wants in its military.
Faction Realignment #
Unsurprisingly, the leftist in America will migrate to Nuevo Amerigo and New New York, and the conservatives will migrate to the Reunited States. Those who choose to remain in an unfriendly country will be on their own. They’ll either assimilate or move.
When Will This Happen? #
If Trump wins re-election, from November 4, 2020, to the end of 2022, America becomes increasingly ungovernable. The confrontations between citizens, law enforcement, and federal agents will deteriorate into a low-grade, guerrilla civil war.
Leftist states will become increasingly brazen and defiant of federal rules. Large numbers of companies and individuals in New York, California, and other leftist states will simply refuse to collect or report federal taxes. States will run elections utterly contrary to federal law, allowing anyone, citizen, resident, or a tourist from Lithuania, to vote in local and national elections.
If Trump loses, the Democrats will attempt to “re-educate” conservatives who will rebel. A low-grade, guerrilla civil war will break out. Probably a little less “low-grade” than if Trump wins.
Either way, with death tolls in the hundreds of thousands and the economy in a complete shutdown, by the fall of 2022, something like a constitutional convention will be called. It won’t be a legitimate Article 5 convention because the Constitution will be effectively scrap paper by then. Instead, leaders from several sides will agree to meet and settle things once and for all.
Someone will come across a blog post by some unknown guy in St. Louis and propose dividing the country three ways according to political appetites, with two smallish leftists countries emanating from New York and California, and one biggish country in the middle emanating from . . . I don’t know, Jefferson City, Missouri, maybe.
This convention will produce an agreement requiring ratification by 3/4 of all states, and 2/3 of the states of each new country, within 180 days. Only Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Michigan will fail to ratify the agreement.
Almost immediately, massive migrations will ensue. The divorce agreement will allow everyone 5 years to choose a country. After that, they’ll be subject to the emigration and immigration laws of the new nations.
All in all, it’s not such a bad idea. My guess is that after a few years, our shared heritage will overcome our present animosity. We might not get back together, but the three new American countries will probably become allies. Nuevo Amerigo will realize China makes a nasty second spouse, and New New York will find out international dating isn’t so easy when your face is Andrew Cuomo.
All good things come to an end, but all’s well that ends well.
BTW, I could be totally wrong. We will see.