Trump: Good, Bad, and Ugly
August 24, 2015
There seems to be a certain air of inevitability that Trump will win the GOP nomination for President. According to a new poll, 57 percent of Republican voters expect that Trump will be the party’s candidate next year. Why is that important? Expectations Beat Preferences It’s important because expectations are far better predictors of actual winners than preference polls. From a 2012 NY Times story by David Leonhardt: Over the last 60 years, poll questions that asked people which candidate they expected to win have been a better guide to the outcome of the presidential race than questions asking people whom they planned to vote for, the study found.