The Fourth Turning

A Fourth Turning Warning for America: Climax

Yesterday, I warned, again, that the center didn’t hold. There is no center in American politics. Americans are more divided than at any time since the Civil War. (Read We Have the War Upon Us by William J. Cooper) Today, I have a short warning from the great book The Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss. What Should Have Happened after 2016 Strauss and Howe prophesied an election that changed everything sometime during the Crisis era which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers (the last time Nancy Pelosi was Speaker of the House):
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2018: The beginning of the end of the Fourth Turning in America

Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. —William Strauss and Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny Donald Trump can’t stand festering problems. Trump forces problems to the surface, into the daylight, where they can be fought and settled.
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Predicting the Climax

We are watching The Fourth Turning unfold before our eyes. While you should read all of The Fourth Turning by generational historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, here’s one of their predictions for this point in time. The prediction was published in 1997: The economy will in time recover from its early and vertiginous reversals. Late in the Crisis, with trust and hope and urgency growing fast, it may even achieve unprecedented levels of efficiency and production.
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The Centre Cannot Hold

THE SECOND COMING --William Butler Yeats Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
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Why Conservatives Should Get Involved—Part 4

In part 1 of this series, we clarified some misconceptions and falsehoods about the Franklin Project. In part 2, we examined the debate on the right from 1990 with William F. Buckley and Milton Friedman. Part 3 was a critique of the Franklin Project’s Plan of Action. Today, we will look at the consequences should conservatives turn their backs on the concept of developing a service ethos in America.
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Libertarian Is The New Mainstream

You don’t hear the word “mainstream” in political spin like you used to. Back in the late 1980s when Jack Kemp, Pat Robertson, Pete DuPont, Al Haig, and George H. W. Bush were battling to replace [caption id=“attachment_15090” align=“alignright” width=“300”] 1988 Republican Candidates[/caption] Ronald Reagan, “mainstream” was in. Candidates fought for the title of “mainstream Republican,” “mainstream Conservative,” “mainstream everything.” I’m glad that word went away. But I’m bringing it back, if only for one blog post.
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Did You See the Crisis Coming?

Can you guess the year? ** Scottish scientists cloned a sheep named Dolly ** President Clinton signed a bill barring federal funds for human cloning ** Bank robbers in Kevlar suits staged an epic gun battle with Los Angeles police ** The English Patient wins Best Picture Oscar ** Tony Blair becomes Prime Minister of England ** Timothy McVeigh convicted of pure evil ** Titanic bounced off the iceberg and hit the box office
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Why Does Leadership Response to Disaster Always Suck?

I just heard on BBC that the Japanese government is only now dealing with the Fukushami nuclear problem appropriately. I’m a little surprised they responded this quickly. 1. [Obama golfing while Japan burns](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/14/obama-urged-seize-reins-crises-pile/), Middle East rages, and Oil spikes* 2. The [White House took weeks to treat the Gulf Oil Spill](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=20&ved=0CFEQFjAJOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwashingtonindependent.com%2F99840%2Fnew-reports-show-white-house-mishandled-oil-spill-response&ei=fYp_TfrbGO6O0QHCp5zzCA&usg=AFQjCNG0t2ruKCpF38KzEAngbC50ir966A&sig2=a9QcCIo3o6BtcjzKp8t7Aw) like a disaster*3. The [White House and FEMA treated Katrina](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CB4QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fstory%2F0%2C2933%2C185801%2C00.html&ei=pIp_Ta-fE_O-0QGQ5d33CA&usg=AFQjCNHWcQaxMjVDLaE2TdJfKihC_4kJGw&sig2=0o6IO3Xdk_bbK9A_dYmXjA) like a local problem until long after disaster struck*4. FEMA took weeks to bring relief to South Carolina following Hurricane Hugo (but did much better following Andrew) Today—on the fifth day of crisis—Japanese utilities officials are still reluctant to ask for help, according to the AP:
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Don’t Look for Quick Fixes

According to a book by historians Neil Howe and William Strauss, history follows a fairly predictable pattern, rotating in cycles equal to a long human life. The book, _The Fourth Turning_, was written in 1997. Read it. If Howe and Strauss are right—and so far, they’re dead on—then we recently entered a Fourth Turning in the current saeculum which they named “millennium.” What is a Fourth Turning? The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
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