Hennessy's View

Domine, non sum dignus

This Is Why Turning People Off Is A Terrible Idea

Sometimes a cause’s worst enemies are its best friends. In 1995, 56 percent of American described themselves as “pro-choice.” At the time, Michael Kinsley on CNN’s Crossfire declared the debate over. Then something strange happened. Americans started changing their minds. The pro-life movement whittled away at public opinion. By May of this year, Gallup found “pro-choice” to be at an all-time low: The 41% of Americans who now identify themselves as “pro-choice” is down from 47% last July and is one percentage point below the previous record low in Gallup trends, recorded in May 2009. Read more →

Mitt Romney’s Cleaning Up in Early Voting, but It’s Confused the Hell Out of Politico

Gallup released its early voting poll today, and it shows Mitt Romney winning 52% to 45%—right in line with their Likely Voter poll numbers. Here’s the chart. Politico Reporter Can’t Read But Gallup’s section on early voting by party ID completely lost Politico’s Kevin Robillard. Robillard looked at the chart that shows when voters intend to vote by party and candidate and mistook it for voting results. This poll question shows that those who support Obama as as likely to vote early as are those who support Romney. Read more →

What The Pollsters Aren’t Telling You

Polls do influence elections. That’s why people like Nate Silver and some of the writers at Business Insider are doing somersaults over Gallup’s Daily Presidential Tracking numbers. For over a week, Gallup has shown a tidal wave for support for Mitt Romney. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight tried to discredit Gallup by blogging about outlier results it’s shown in past years. Here’s the conclusion Business Insider reached: Bottom line: Gallup swings wildly and it frequently has results not in line with other pollsters. Read more →

How to Avoid Overconfidence

Do you worry that conservative grassroots might get overconfident and blow our chance to stop the advance of socialism in America? I do. I am concerned that we keep repeating the same tactics to the same audiences until both the audience and the actors become … well, bored. When I read stories like this one, that GOP sentiment is at an all-time high, I worry that some on our side might decide they can go back to their regularly scheduled programming. Read more →