Tag: Polls

2016 Election, Political Psychology

Trump’s Landslide Tipping Point Is Breathing Down Your Neck

We’re getting close, folks. So close you can feel it. Close your eyes and feel the soft, warm breath on the back of your neck. (Now open your eyes and continue reading. You’re such a good reader.) As you watch the polls shift rapidly toward Trump, you might wonder what’s happening. What’s happening is completely …

2016 Election, Trump

Trump Surging Up, Up, and Away

Politico announced Tuesday: Clinton’s Advisors Tell Her to Prep for a Landslide Inquisitor said the same day: Hillary Clinton Campaign Preparing for a Landslide The stories beneath those headlines spoke of the intense hubris inside the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign. Their “experts” declared the race over on Tuesday. Assured of a landslide, Clinton …

2016 Election, Trump

2016 looks like a repeat of 1980

You probably remember that in September 1980 voters couldn’t wait to cast a vote for Reagan. If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong. TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue. Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed …

2016 Election, Political Psychology, Trump

The Psychology of The Inevitable

I have no idea who will win the Indiana primary 72 hours from the time I write. But the people inside Ted Cruz’s campaign seem to have an idea. And it’s not good for them. Cruz’s top team expects their candidate to lose. And Senator Cruz seems to have accepted that outcome. Expectations Matter More …

2012 Election

Here’s How Nate Silver Determines Obama’s Chances of Winning

Nate Silver publishes a daily number that represents Barack Obama’s chances of being re-elected. As I write this on October 27, Silver’s magic number is 74%. Nate Silver explains his scientific approach to picking winners in elections.

2012 Election

What The Pollsters Aren’t Telling You

Polls do influence elections. That’s why people like Nate Silver and some of the writers at Business Insider are doing somersaults over Gallup’s Daily Presidential Tracking numbers. For over a week, Gallup has shown a tidal wave for support for Mitt Romney. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight tried to discredit Gallup by blogging about outlier results …

2012 Election

Obama’s Surging in the Polls; Here’s Everything You Need to Know

Don’t bother blaming it on poll questions designed to lead respondents.  Never mind that it’s a long way until the election. And stop whining about the White House fudging the numbers on unemployment. The fact is that Obama’s surging at just the right time. His re-election chances are now above 50 percent. His intrade.com chances …

Economy, Latest, Limited Government

80 Percent of Americans Read This Blog Every Day

I’ll be honest with you: I’ve lied. Usually out of desperation. I’ve lied to those closest to me—those most willing to forgive the thing I lied about.  I’ve also told the truth to my own detriment.  In the long run, the latter works best. In fact, telling the truth works best in the short run, …

Foreign Relations

American Support For War Grows

The New York Times, believe it or not, has this story in its campaign blog: Poll: American Support for War Inches Up The story cites an NYT/CBS Poll that showed America support for war in Iraq rose to 41% in July from 35% in May. You will not see this story on the CBS Evening …