What the Hell Is Up In Missouri's 2nd Congressional District?

No time for deep analysis tonight, but there’s a small political earthquake in St. Louis County.

With over 90% of the precincts counted in the Missouri primary, incumbent Congresswoman Ann Wagner has only 500 more votes than her November challenger, Democrat Arthur Lieber.


I get that this is a primary and that the St. Louis County Executive race drew a lot of attention. But Wagner won her seat in 2012 by 20 points. And polls show that Democrat voter enthusiasm is down 23 percent from 2012.

Assuming the Dooley-Stenger race overcame half that Dem enthusiasm deficit, Wagner should have received about 15,000 more votes than Lieber.

Adding to my curiosity about this race is a story today that voter approval of their own member of Congress is at an all time low with 51 percent disapproving of the job their own Congressperson is doing.

If the MO-2 results hold up, this November could be a shocker for incumbents, which means the GOP’s House majority could be in jeopardy.

Buckle up.