Election Prediction

For what it’s worth–this is my most optimistic guess:

Beginning with WSJ’s 216-203 Bush, I see the Toss Ups falling like this:

State EV Winner NV 5 Bush NM 5 Bush MN 10 Bush IA 7 Bush AR 6 Bush WI 10 Bush OH 20 Bush PA 21 Kerry NY 4 Kerry FL 27 Kerry

Bush 216 + 63 = 279 (winner)
Kerry 203 + 52 = 255 (loser)

Popular vote: Bush 50-Kerry 48-Nader/others <1.

Senate: GOP + 4

House: GOP + 4

Likely alternatiaves (in order of probability):

  1. Bush wins Florida

  2. Kerry wins Ohio

  3. Bush wins Pennsylvannia

  4. Kerry wins Minnesota

  5. Kerry wins Wisconsin

  6. Bush wins Michigan

  7. Kerry wins New Mexico

  8. Bush wins Hawaii