For what it’s worth–this is my most optimistic guess:
Beginning with WSJ’s 216-203 Bush, I see the Toss Ups falling like this:
State EV Winner NV 5 Bush NM 5 Bush MN 10 Bush IA 7 Bush AR 6 Bush WI 10 Bush OH 20 Bush PA 21 Kerry NY 4 Kerry FL 27 Kerry
Bush 216 + 63 = 279 (winner)
Kerry 203 + 52 = 255 (loser)
Popular vote: Bush 50-Kerry 48-Nader/others <1.
Senate: GOP + 4
House: GOP + 4
Likely alternatiaves (in order of probability):
Bush wins Florida
Kerry wins Ohio
Bush wins Pennsylvannia
Kerry wins Minnesota
Kerry wins Wisconsin
Bush wins Michigan
Kerry wins New Mexico
Bush wins Hawaii