ANALYSIS: Nord Stream Pipelines Sabotaged, and Only One Country Benefits
My guest post on The Gateway Pundit
Originally post on www.thegatewaypundit.com
Three deep-water explosions destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea on Monday. While the MSM and governments reported "leaks" in the pipelines following sudden pressure drops to zero, Swedish seismologists knew better.
One of the three explosions measures 2.3 on the Richter Scale of earthquake intensity, but this was no earthquake. It was explosion—like a gigantic undersea mine. Via Reuters:
Bjorn Lund, seismologist at the Swedish National Seismic Network at Uppsala University, said seismic data gathered by him and Nordic colleagues showed that the explosions took place in the water and not in the rock under the seabed.
The explosions guarantee Germany and the EU won't go wobbly with regard to sanctions against Russian energy imports. The damage to pipelines will take months repair, and repairs are unlikely to begin until next summer. Even if Germany were to cry "uncle" as civil unrest intensifies over lack of heat and energy, even if Russia decided to turn the power back on, the conduit for Russian gas to Europe is broken.
TASS reports details of the explosions:
The first explosion was recorded at about two o’clock in the morning on Monday, the second at 07:04 p.m. on the same day. Gas leak warnings were issued on Monday at 01:52 p.m. and 08:41 p.m. respectively. Vessels passing through the area reportedly notified the Coast Guard of the seething on the sea surface. Lund argues that there are usually no military exercises in the area of the incident, which could theoretically cause damage to the pipelines.
No military exercises in the area on Monday, but there were military exercises in the area recently enough. We will look into those exercises in a bit.
So, Nord Stream is dead, and the question becomes "whodunnit?"
Means, Motive, and Opportunity
To fix a crime on a suspect, police try to establish means, motive, and opportunity. If the victim was shot in his home with no signs of force entry or struggle, the suspects will be people known to the victim who had access to the murder weapon and reason to kill him. Take away any one element—means (gun), motive (gain), or opportunity (access)—and the case falls apart.
If we bounce all three elements against the reasonable suspects, one suspect stands out.
Means eliminates most suspects. Only a government with an advanced naval warfare capability could have executed the sabotage. That limits the suspects to Germany, Great Britain, France, the United States, Russia, and China.
But means also involves proximity. Chinese or French naval activities in the area would have raised flags. Geography would seem to preclude the United States except for the fact the US Navy operates in every ocean in the world with advanced war fighting capabilities. So the list of suspects with the means to destroy Nord Stream is down to the UK, US, Russia, and Germany.
So, we shift to motive.
Germany has no motive to damage its energy lifeline. Germany is highly dependent on Russian natural gas. Entire German industries are being nationalized because of the lack of energy due to sanctions against Russia and Russia reducing flow through the pipelines. Germans held massive protests over the weekend demanding Germany pull out of the anti-Russian alliance in exchange for a return of energy.
Great Britain has also suffered under the sanctions imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The British economy is in shambles, forcing the UK's central bank to pivot back to quantitative easing. Additionally, the new government in the UK has its hands full with forming a government. It is unlikely the Brits would attempt such a caper.
Russia seems to have a motive: inflict long-term pain on Europe for sending lethal arms to Ukraine. But Russia didn't need to blow up the pipelines. Russia controls the valves that send or halt gas flow to Europe, and she's already turned off the spigot. Russia paid for a portion of the pipeline and expects to resume profitable energy exports to Europe once the war with Ukraine settles. Why would Russia cut off its own nose?
That leaves the United States. So what are its motives?