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Active Covid Cases About to Set All-Time High
Prediction of Peak Covid proving out
On December 21, 2021, I made this prediction:
Within a week or two, more people will have Covid than at any other time in the pandemic.
That post included a shot of New York Times’ daily Covid tracker which showed a barely discernible acceleration line on the far right side. My prediction was based on acceleration of new cases, meaning, the percent change in new cases vs. the previous day’s percentage change, aka, the delta of the delta.
Well, today, the New York Times predicted what I predicted last week:
Officials expect it [omicron] to break records. The all-time high for average daily cases was 251,232, set in January. By some estimates, the United States could reach one million cases a day, even before the end of the year.
And here’s today’s NY Times Covid chart showing a nearly-vertical daily case line:
It looks like we will break the all-time record for current active cases on Wednesday or Thursday, December 29 or 30. And the numbers of active cases could be absolutely staggering compared to the previous peaks.
But the peak won’t last long.
The typical recovery time from previous variants of Covid was about 5 days. Research in South Africa and the UK shows Omicron lasts about two days. That’s why South Africa’s peak came and went with amazing speed, in only a couple of weeks. As I pointed out 5 days ago:
The South Africa peak came and went in 3 weeks. Highly transmissible diseases don’t last long, because everyone gets them right away and gets over them in two days (on average).
Remember, widespread infection of a mild variant signals the end of the pandemic. There will be some bad cases, which is lamentable for those affected, but it’s good news for humanity to finally end this two-year nightmare of public-health incompetence, corporate greed, and political tyranny.
As a reminder of the public health incompetence during Covid, Cernovich gave the world this gem today:
Liars or idiots? You decide.