News

2015 was a bad year for Wall Street analysts

Last year about this time, Business Insider asked 13 Wall Street analysts where the S&P 500 would stand at close of trading today.

For background, the S&P 500 began the year at 2058.9. The mean guess for closing number was 2212 with a standard deviation of 83.

Here’s the ugly chart: 

Three of the guesses–Oppenheimer, RBC, and Fundstrat–were more than 3 standard deviations from the actual close of 2050.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the most overzealous guesser, expected capex to drive the S&P 500 t0 a whopping 2325. But we know how that turned out.

Your Turn

Where will S&P 500 close to end 2016?

I’ll guess 1241.


Author: William Hennessy

Co-founder of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition and Nationwide Chicago Tea Party Persuasive design expertLatest book: Turning On Trump: An Evolution (2016)Author of The Conservative Manifest (1993), Zen Conservatism (2009), Weaving the Roots (2011), and Fight to Evolve (2016)I believe every person deserves the dignity of meaningful work as the only path to human flourishing.