January 1, 2016

110 words 1 min read

2015 was a bad year for Wall Street analysts

Last year about this time, Business Insider asked 13 Wall Street analysts where the S&P 500 would stand at close of trading today.

For background, the S&P 500 began the year at 2058.9. The mean guess for closing number was 2212 with a standard deviation of 83.

Here’s the ugly chart: 

Three of the guesses–Oppenheimer, RBC, and Fundstrat–were more than 3 standard deviations from the actual close of 2050.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the most overzealous guesser, expected capex to drive the S&P 500 t0 a whopping 2325. But we know how that turned out.

Your Turn

Where will S&P 500 close to end 2016?

I’ll guess 1241.

Record Your Guess