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Analysis of Donald Trump Poll

Last week’s poll asked for your degree of support for Donald Trump’s candidacy. This poll received far less attention than the Missouri GOP Governor poll of the previous week, as only 60 people responded.

On the plus side, there was no detectable cheating on the Trump poll.

One Word: Polarization

Histogram of Trump Poll
Histogram of Trump Poll

Respondents had choices from 0 to 5 to indicate their degree of support for Trump, with 0 = No Support and 5 = Total Support. Votes of 0, 1, or 2 are considered to Oppose Trump, 3, 4, or 5 Support Trump.

Key Findings

  • 70 percent of all votes fell into the extreme buckets:
    • 37 percent show No support for Trump
    • 33 percent show Total support for Trump
  • 50 percent of votes fell into the bottom half of support, 50 percent in the top half of support
  • Voters who do not support Trump (0, 1, or 2) show more conviction than voters who do support Trump (3, 4, or 5)
    • Of those who do not support Trump, 73 percent chose the most extreme position (0)
    • Among Trump supporters, 67 percent chose the most extreme position (5)
  • 52 percent all voters came from Missouri,amuch higher percentage than in the Governor poll (weird). Trump is NOT popular in Missouri:
    • 42 percent of Missourians show No support for Trump
    • 16 percent of Missourians show Total support for Trump
    • 61 percent of Missourians oppose Trump to some degree
    • 39 percent of Missourians support Trump to some degree

Again, here’s the link to my raw data if you’d like to investigate further.


This is not a scientific poll, but it does have some value. Those who chose Total Support (16 percent of Missourians, 33 percent overall) will likely support Trump no matter what. Were The Donald to launch in Independent campaign, he’ll take a lot of Republican voters with him, a la 1992.

Trump has earned a high level of passion from his supporters. In other words, his support might be an inch wide, but it’s a mile deep. If Trump is not the GOP nominee, his supporters might defect by not voting at all in November 2016.

Combining Trump’s weird support with Hillary’s losing support among Democrats every day (I can’t believe I’m about to write these words), the stars could be aligning for (gag) President Bernie Sanders. Yes, Trump could help elect America’s first openly socialist president.


As with everything I do, the margin of error in this post is 99%.

New Poll

This week’s poll is all about National Service.

Author: William Hennessy

Co-founder of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition and Nationwide Chicago Tea Party Persuasive design expertLatest book: Turning On Trump: An Evolution (2016)Author of The Conservative Manifest (1993), Zen Conservatism (2009), Weaving the Roots (2011), and Fight to Evolve (2016)I believe every person deserves the dignity of meaningful work as the only path to human flourishing.

2 Comments on “Analysis of Donald Trump Poll

  1. I like the fact that Trump has been stirring it up and taking it to Hussein Obama putting him on the defensive, along with some Republicans. However, do not get too enthralled with Donald Trump. He may or may not stay in the race. Trump told Sean Hannity on his radio program 6/16/15 that he would drop out of the race if his message was not resonating with the people. The problem with Trump is he has ran or said he was going to run before and dropped out. More importantly, Trump has contributed to many Statists, including the Clinton’s and he has changed his position on numerous topics. He was for a single payer healthcare plan, but now is against it. He has used eminent domain to steal other people’s property. He clamors against China, but has his clothing line made in China. He has contributed to many of the Statists who are destroying this country, such as Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid and more recently Rahm Emanuel. Why Rahm? There were other Democrats in that race so why contribute to “Dead Fish?” Trump’s announcement and speech proclaiming he is entering the presidential race has/is resonating with the public, because he talked up America, unlike Hussein Obama. Hopefully, Trump will continue to speak out about things that need to be spoken about and wake up America. With that said, in the end can you/we trust Trump? Probably not, but he is stirring it up which shows the cowardice of the RINO’s.

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