Analysis of Donald Trump Poll
Last week’s poll asked for your degree of support for Donald Trump’s candidacy. This poll received far less attention than the Missouri GOP Governor poll of the previous week, as only 60 people responded.
On the plus side, there was no detectable cheating on the Trump poll.
One Word: Polarization
[caption id=“attachment_16313” align=“aligncenter” width=“600”] Histogram of Trump Poll[/caption]
Respondents had choices from 0 to 5 to indicate their degree of support for Trump, with 0 = No Support and 5 = Total Support. Votes of 0, 1, or 2 are considered to Oppose Trump, 3, 4, or 5 Support Trump.
** 70 percent of all votes fell into the extreme buckets:
** 37 percent show No support for Trump ** 33 percent show Total support for Trump
** 50 percent of votes fell into the bottom half of support, 50 percent in the top half of support ** Voters who do not support Trump (0, 1, or 2) show more conviction than voters who do support Trump (3, 4, or 5)
** Of those who do not support Trump, 73 percent chose the most extreme position (0) ** Among Trump supporters, 67 percent chose the most extreme position (5)
** 52 percent all voters came from Missouri,amuch higher percentage than in the Governor poll (weird). Trump is NOT popular in Missouri:
** 42 percent of Missourians show No support for Trump ** 16 percent of Missourians show Total support for Trump ** 61 percent of Missourians oppose Trump to some degree ** 39 percent of Missourians support Trump to some degree
Again, here’s the link to my raw data if you’d like to investigate further.
This is not a scientific poll, but it does have some value. Those who chose Total Support (16 percent of Missourians, 33 percent overall) will likely support Trump no matter what. Were The Donald to launch in Independent campaign, he’ll take a lot of Republican voters with him, a la 1992.
Trump has earned a high level of passion from his supporters. In other words, his support might be an inch wide, but it’s a mile deep. If Trump is not the GOP nominee, his supporters might defect by not voting at all in November 2016.
Combining Trump’s weird support with Hillary’s losing support among Democrats every day (I can’t believe I’m about to write these words), the stars could be aligning for (gag) President Bernie Sanders. Yes, Trump could help elect America’s first openly socialist president.
As with everything I do, the margin of error in this post is 99%.
This week’s poll is all about National Service.