Politics

Battleground States: My Predictions vs. Polls

Saturday I posted this prediction on Palin’s effect on the polls in nine battleground polls.  A Rasmussen poll released tonight concentrates on five of those states, so let’s see how my predictions are tracking.  As of Saturday, all of these states were too close to call with neither candidate holding a meaningful advantage:

StateMy Prediction RasmussenGrade
McCainObama 
ColoradoFast McCain Lead4649F
FloridaFast McCain Lead4848B
OhioSlow Move to McCain 5144B
PennsylvaniaSlow Move to McCain 4547A
VirginiaFast McCain Lead4947A
Average47.847B-

 

Analysis

Colorado:  I expected the outdoors types (Rough Riders) to flock to Palin, but apparently Colorado is still under the spell of the DNC convention.  Let’s give this a we

Florida:  McCain’s numbers rose in Florida but not quickly enough.  Scott Rasmussen said this could have been the result of Hurricane Ike preparations. 

Ohio:  I predicted a slow shift to McCain (lead around 10/2), but people flocked to McCain.  Women drove the move.

Pennsylvania:  Trending slowly toward McCain.  He’ll have the lead shortly after the VP debate.

Virginia:  The Palin effect drove McCain ahead of Obama, which was my prediction.  McCain needs to concentrate on this state, though, because he should be ahead by 7 or 8 here.

I’ll continue to update my predictions as more battleground state poll come in.

Author: William Hennessy

Co-founder of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition and Nationwide Chicago Tea Party Persuasive design expertLatest book: Turning On Trump: An Evolution (2016)Author of The Conservative Manifest (1993), Zen Conservatism (2009), Weaving the Roots (2011), and Fight to Evolve (2016)I believe every person deserves the dignity of meaningful work as the only path to human flourishing.