Hennessy's View

Domine, non sum dignus

Election Prediction

For what it’s worth–this is my most optimistic guess:

Beginning with WSJ’s 216-203 Bush, I see the Toss Ups falling like this:

StateEVWinner
NV5Bush
NM5Bush
MN10Bush
IA7Bush
AR6Bush
WI10Bush
OH20Bush
PA21Kerry
NY4Kerry
FL27Kerry

Bush 216 + 63 = 279 (winner)
Kerry 203 + 52 = 255 (loser)

Popular vote: Bush 50-Kerry 48-Nader/others <1.

Senate: GOP + 4

House: GOP + 4

Likely alternatiaves (in order of probability):

  1. Bush wins Florida
  2. Kerry wins Ohio
  3. Bush wins Pennsylvannia
  4. Kerry wins Minnesota
  5. Kerry wins Wisconsin
  6. Bush wins Michigan
  7. Kerry wins New Mexico
  8. Bush wins Hawaii








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