Hennessy's View

The latest Public Policy Poll shows Santorum surging—big time. 

Santorum is most appealing to conservatives—from Evangelicals to Tea Partiers:

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ he’s now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney.  Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.

The reason for Santorum’s lead is likeability. Sixty-four percent of Republicans view Senator Santorum favorably—far more than any other candidate.

Mitt Romney’s attack machine, though, is about to aim its distortion guns at the former Senator. Mitt won’t offer a vision, so he’s adopted a slash-and-burn strategy in hopes of driving people to despise his opponents. That strategy might win the nomination, but I fail to see how it will win the election.

Popularity: 1% [?]

The liberal press cannot issue a story about the Republican presidential race that does not refer to Mitt Romney’s need (and inability) to “relate to” conservatives. Puke.

Relate to this: if Mitt Romney’s a conservative, I’m a Hottentot. 

By “relate to,” the media and Romney’s handlers actually mean  “hoodwink.”  While Romney might secure the GOP nomination without conservative support, his campaign will go down in flames without conservative grassroots boots on the ground from Labor Day to Election Day.

The only way Romney can win the hearts and minds of conservatives is to relive the past 20 years of his life.  This time as a conservative.

Romney might win more favor among conservatives by simply acknowledging who and what he is: an East Coast, Blue Blood, Rockefeller Republican with severely elitist views of government’s role in people’s lives. (And by “people” I include corporations.)

Popularity: 1% [?]

Truth is, not all companies, not all business ideas, can make it on their own. 

It’s easy to say that a good idea will automatically lead to a successful business. But it’s a lie.

Apple did not become Apple without investors.  Sure, there are some examples of businesses that flourished without financial help.  But not many. We’ll never know the wonderful ideas that died in their owner’s garage for lack of financing. 

Markkula offered to guarantee a line of credit of up to $250,000 in return for being made a one-third equity participant. Apple would incorporate, and he along with Jobs and Wozniak would each own 26% of the stock. The rest would be reserved to attract future investors. The three met in the cabana by Markkula’s swimming pool and sealed the deal. “I thought it was unlikely that Mike would ever see that $250,000 again, and I was impressed that he was willing to risk it,” Jobs recalled.

Isaacson, Walter (2011-10-24). Steve Jobs (p. 77). Simon & Schuster, Inc.. Kindle Edition.

A lot of people with ideas turn to government for investments. Why a business person with an idea would go to government for funding is obvious: poor scrutiny, below market interest rates, and (seemingly) unlimited funds. Ideas requiring big investments and heavy risks tend to seek out government help.  (See Aerotropolis.)

But the private sector has its own method of bringing great, but risky, ideas to market: venture capitalists and private equity. 

Venture capital and private equity firms pool their money together and invest in start-ups or small businesses seeking to grow, or salvage existing companies that suffer from bad management.  These firms employ experts and risk-takers who help push ideas over the top. 

Most importantly, private equity firms are like Bailey’s Building & Loan—they give us an alternative to the Mr. Potter of government.

It’s absurd to criticize Bain Capital for its practice of salvaging failing businesses.  It’s absurd and silly to criticize Mitt Romney for laying off people from dying companies. Even some Democrats get this:

Should bad, poorly-managed companies be allowed to destroy value?  Should fast-growing, innovative businesses receive capital and support to accelerate their growth?  And should hard-working pensioners and retirees be allowed to invest their savings in an asset class that outperforms nearly every other one available?  Private equity has an important role and should be lauded, not lambasted.  The WSJ does a nice job of making this case here. 

I am a strong proponent of business considering all stakeholders, not just shareholders, as vital corporate interests.  I’ve written about Creating Shared Value in the past. I believe that mass layoffs shouldn’t happen simply to boost quarterly or annual numbers. 

When Bain Capital bought a business, the damage had already been done.  Bain didn’t buy thriving companies and gut them; it bought failing businesses and saved them.

Sometimes layoffs are necessary to avoid outright closure.  That’s why business leaders get paid big dollars—because we rely on them to save as many jobs as possible by making brilliant strategic decisions. 

While I have a lot of difference with Mitt Romney and with business executives who treat employees like pawns in their personal empowerment games, I believe that Romney’s actions at Bain were necessary and compassionate, not callous and self-serving.

Were it not for private equity firms like Bain and venture capitalists in general, ideas like the Apple II would die in Steve Jobs’s garage.  Entrepreneurs, inventors, and troubled companies would have nowhere to turn except government.

Newt Gingrich made a big mistake attacking Romney’s role in saving failing companies. In fact, his error was so big it might have sealed the nomination for Romney.

Popularity: 1% [?]

The middle of the road is fine until you have to get somewhere.

I voted for Bob Dole in 1996. Yet his nomination drove me away from political activism for years.

I got out of the Navy in the fall of 1994. I watched the GOP reclaim the House with my nephew, Scott.  I expected the Republicans to nominate a solid conservative who deliver a knock-out blow to the Clinton era two years later.

Instead, they nominated Bob Dole.

I quit. Gave up.  Surrendered.

“If the Republicans want to nominated a ‘me too’ Republican,” I told friends, “there’s no point in my wasting time.”

Yeah, it was a bit petulant of me. Then, again, I’d been through a lot personally. Maybe I needed a break.

But Bob Dole?

In 1996, Bob Dole was the symbol of the GOP establishment. To Reaganites, he was a living reminder of the low-point of the Gipper’s two terms: the 1982 tax increase. As a politician, he was the worst of both worlds: an acerbic, sarcastic humor that turned off moderates and moderate deal-making politics that turned off everybody else.

I caucused, that year, for Pat Buchanan.

Buchanan had and has many flaws.  But he’d have wiped up the stage with Clinton at debates. Even if he’d lost to Clinton, he’d have forced Bill to move ten steps to the right.  Dole, on the other hand, brought a record that closely followed Clinton’s.

The Republican Established told us in 96 that only a moderate could win. We needed to nominate someone who could reach across the aisle and do business with the Democrats. Someone who would appeal to the Generation Xers.

So they nominated deal-maker, aisle-crosser, tax-hiker Bob Dole.

In December of 1996, Clinton was smoking cigars in the Oval Office as Bob Dole was released into the wild.

To those who remember, who were in the trenches with the Buchanan Brigades in our fight against the GOP establishment, 2012 is looking  a lot like 1996.

Once again, we’re coming off historic wins in the off-year election.  Once again, we’re dealing with a GOP field of candidates that lacks a viable, solid conservative. Once again, the establishment wants us to vote for the echo candidate.

In 1996, the echo was Bob “It’s My Turn” Dole.  In 2012, it’s Mitt Romney.

Look, if Romney gets the nomination, I’ll vote for the guy.  I’ll work to help him defeat President Obama, because I believe that Romney would be better than Obama. The Supreme Court, alone, is reason to support any Republican over just about any Democrat.

But Romney won’t stir up the passions of the Tea Party base. He’ll remind older conservatives of Bob Dole, and he’ll remind Millennials of the guy who laid off their dad.

Bob Dole, like Mitt Romney, is too close to the middle of the road.

P.S. After I wrote this post, Bob Dole endorsed Mitt Romney.  Surprise!

Popularity: 1% [?]

Herman Cain is riding a wave of popularity because of his upset win in the Florida straw poll on Saturday.  He’s helped by Rick Perry’s free-fall and Mitt Romney’s establishmentarianism.  But Cain is a huge underdog.

That’s okay because America loves an underdog.

Here’s what must happen right now for Herman Cain to win:

1.  Social Media avalanche.  Get @THEHermanCain trending on Twitter, and keep it there for five consecutive days. How?  Simple. Use Hootsuite (or similar tool) to schedule original tweets about Herman Cain, with a shortened link to his site (http://bit.ly/r19euz) and his Twitter handle (@THEHermanCain).  Send 2 original tweets per day—one in the morning, one in the evening.  Post about Herman Cain, with link to his site (http://bit.ly/r19euz) on Facebook every other day (no more). (For more tips on effective social media campaigning, get my $1.99 ebook “Weaving the Roots.”)

2.  Bloggers posting human stories about why Florida voters picked Cain.  Real stories like this one from Byron York:

“I liked Cain, but I wasn’t sure he could win,” said Zena, from Washington County.  “But after I heard this, I thought it doesn’t matter if he wins or not — I am for this man. He was awesome.”

Or this one from the same York piece:

“I couldn’t make up my mind,” said Thelma, from Panama City, after the vote.  “It was the speech that made the hair stand up on my arms.  It wasn’t a tingle down my leg — it was an emotional excitement that this man knows how to get our country out of trouble.”

3.  Add a link to Herman Cain’s official website to your email signature. This is a powerful tool that everyone who sends emails can use.

4.  Attend a local event.  You’ll need to sign up for email blasts from the Cain campaign (http://bit.ly/r19euz) and read them. But don’t just read them. Forward important ones to 5 friends.  (Only important ones. Don’t spam the undecided.)

5.  Donate Money.  I know conservatives and independents hate the idea of money in politics. Without money, Cain cannot compete.  I’ll say it again:  without millions of small donations, Herman Cain will lose.  Of all five must-do actions on this list, this is the most important.  Give whatever you can, then tell the world, “I just donated to Herman Cain online http://bit.ly/r19euz.”

In 2008, the Republicans nominated John McCain—an echo.  In 1996, Republicans nominated Bob Dole—an echo.  In 1988, 2000, and 2004 Republicans nominated echoes. (Did I say “Republicans?”  I meant king-makers.)

If you want to make a difference—and blow Obama out of the water in November 2012—don’t give the American voter an echo—give him a choice.

While the Republican presidential field has many good men an women in its ranks, as do many Congressional and state races across the country, most candidates are corporate-sponsored echoes of big government and crony capitalism.

Our grassroots movement has come too far to return now to business as usual.

Last night, I had the rare and wonderful honor of introducing Phyllis Schlafly at a fundraiser for Ed Martin.  Mrs. Schlafly sits in the conservative pantheon with William F. Buckley, Ronald Reagan, Russell Kirk, and Barry Goldwater.  Her 1964 book, A Choice Not an Echo: The inside story of how American Presidents are chosen, laid the blueprint for Ronald Reagan’s near-miss in 1976 and victory in 1980.

In 2012, the GOP can give Americans a choice, or it can destroy itself with mere echoes.  At this moment in history, there is no third way.

Note: Views expressed are mine and do not reflect the official position of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition.

Popularity: 2% [?]