Hennessy's View

Two weeks ago, weeks ago, how many Missouri statewide offices did you expect to flip?  Be honest.

Yes, there are great people running for Governor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer.  And we already have a fine Lieutenant Governor Kinder running for re-election.

But numerous factors, like name recognition, experience, and Jay Nixon’s weird relationship with Republican House leadership, made a major upset unlikely. And no Republicans had stepped up to challenge Chris Koster for Attorney General.

Until Ed Martin jumped into AG race yesterday.

Now, we have a fight.

Ed’s statewide name recognition, familiarity with Jefferson City, and enormous respect among grass roots put every statewide office immediately in play.

But every race will be a dogfight.  Every race will be bruising.  Every candidate will need every possible vote.

That’s why I’m thrilled, giddy, jubilant, proud, and pantingly pleased that the St. Louis Tea Party Coalition has joined the nationwide Election Day Tea Party.

And I’m more thrilled, giddy, etc. that we’re kicking off election season with the 3rd Anniversary Tea Party PLUS 7 Events That Made America America with Dr. Larry Schweikart. 

Friday is Dr. Schweikart, author of A Patriot’s History of the United States.  Larry puts on one hell of a show.  We’ll provde hors d’oeuvres, a free drink, a cash bar, and an After Party.

Saturday is a full day of getting down and dirty with winning some friggin’ elections.  We’ll have training from local and national experts, inspirational talks from Bill Federer and Dr. Schweikart, caucus training, social media training for beginners and experts, and more. We’ve taken care of breakfast AND lunch, so you can focus on the fight.

With four statewide offices now totally in play, we all need to arm our minds with the most important facts to win in 2012.  But wait; there’s more!

In St. Louis’s reconstituted 1st US Congressional District, the indefatigable Martin Baker has a chance to flip a seat that’s been Democrat since the destruction of federalism was only gleam in FDR’s eye.

Plus, we have a Saul Alinsky socialist to evict from the White House!

Please get your tickets now. Tickets for Friday’s event are going very fast, and Saturday’s moving, too.  Once they’re gone, they’re gone—we don’t have room for more.

Remember, Friday and Saturday, February 24 and 25 at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Clayton, MO.  Get your tickets here, today.

Still not ready to order?  Watch this.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Ed Martin Jr. of St. Louis has redirected his fire to the Attorney General race, and this is great news for everyone except Chris Koster.

Back when Ed Martin was talking about running for the Republican nod to take on Claire McCaskill, I had another thought.  Well, a bunch of people had another thought: Ed would make an outstanding Attorney General.

*********UPDATE*********

HUGE list of endorsements on Ed’s official press release. 

******************************

I guess I was right.

I wasn’t disappointed that Ed chose to run for Todd Akin’s US House seat. Ed would make a great conservative legislator.  And as I said before, so will Ann Wagner, who can now focus on  . . . whichever Democrat decides to give a concession speech at 7:01 pm on November 6.

But, at this pivotal moment in history, as Attorney General, Ed Martin will be Missouri’s general in the war on Washington abuse.  Here’s why.

First, Ed has used his law license for the good of society, to protect life, to defend the wrongly accused, and to advance his—our—conservative principles.  He’s not a lawyer who’s in it for the money.  I’ve met some of the people he’s helped, and I’ve heard their stories.

In these battles, including a nationally covered battle against Illinois’s criminal Governor Rod Blagojevich, Ed Martin was tenacious, principled, and victorious.

Missouri needs an AG who will fight for the right things. 

Second, Ed understands that the battle for liberty over the next 12 years will be fought between the states and Washington. The states—and only the states—have the Constitutional power and the economic leverage fight Washington and win. 

The Several States vs. US Government will be ugly,long, and painful. [Insert your analogy here.]  Most people will lose their stomach before it’s over. People—even good conservatives—will want to throw in the towel and heel to the Washington monster.

Ed won’t.  He understands that Congress, with its entrenched establishment and elitist snobbery, is as close to a lost cause as you’ll find.  He wants to be one of 50 state attorneys general who, with their governors and secretaries of state, beat Congress into submission.(I said “ugly.”) 

Ed Martin has a clear path to take on turncoat Democrat Koster in November.  That fight begins today. When Ed prevails in November, Missouri will have an Attorney General who actually has read and understands the 10th Amendment of the United States Constitution—and a man who’s smart to know it matters.

Previously on Hennessy’s View about Ed Martin:

Give Me 5 Minutes, And I’ll Give You a New Friend

Name the One Tea Partier in the Race

11 Minutes of Exactly What We’re Talking About

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Okay, Santorum and Gingrich didn’t get a bump out of their debates over the weekend.  More like the bump got them.

And Ron Paul did way better than I expected. Congratulations to Dr. Paul and Mitt.

I still think my Saturday night post accurately reflected the national impressions, though.  That’s backed up by this CBS News poll that shows Republicans believe Santorum most closely shares their values, but—and this is a J Lo but—they believe Romney is more electable.

Romney and Santorum bring different perceived strengths to the race as well. Romney is viewed as most electable (and most likely to be the eventual nominee), while Santorum is seen as the candidate who best represents these voters’ values – up 17 points since November. Romney is right behind him on this measure.

I have to disagree with their judgment on Romney. Here’s why.

To win, the Republican nominee must do two things: 1) generate more energy within his base than Obama, and 2) he must attract the people who don’t trust unlimited government, but don’t necessarily care for the conservative base, either. 

Ronald Reagan did that.  Reagan won the support of many center-right factions:

• Defense hawks (Cold Warriors)
• Religious right (Moral Majority)
• Fiscal conservatives (Supply Siders)
• Strict constructionists (Constitutionalists)
• Blue collar families (Reagan Democrats)
• Independents (independents)

But Romney isn’t Reagan.  Romney is much more like John McCain, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, and Gerald Ford—the last four Republicans to lose a presidential election.

The reason those four lost wasn’t because they were bad men.  They were good men.  And it wasn’t really because their policies were out of step with most voters.  In fact, their policies were more reflective of America than those of their opponents.

The reason McCain, Dole, Bush, and Ford lost to Obama, Clinton, Clinton, and Carter was because they failed to pull together that broad conservative coalition. But the biggest reason they lost was that they failed to convince the last two—so-called Reagan Democrats and independents—that they offered a choice. And they failed to inspire the base to spend their vacation pounding the pavement or making calls.

A WSJ story today reveals some crucial facts:

Today’s Republican Party has become steadily more blue-collar, more populist and more influenced by voters who act as much like independents as Republicans. All that makes the idea of attacks on capitalist behavior arising from the traditional party of capitalists a little less bizarre.

• Three-quarters of those who voted in the New Hampshire Republican primary had family incomes below $100,000, early exit polls indicated. Almost half had no college degree.

• In a stunning sign of how loose party affiliations have become, almost half of those who turned out to vote in the Republican primary actually identified themselves as independent voters. Big chunks of them went for Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., the least-conventional of the GOP candidates.

• Nationally, when the thousands of interviews conducted in last year’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls are combined, Americans who call themselves blue-collar workers actually were slightly more likely to identify themselves as Republicans than as Democrats.

• And when the Journal/NBC News poll asked Americans in November who was responsible for the country’s current economic problems, Republicans were precisely as likely as Democrats to blame “Wall Street bankers.”

When blue collar families and independents see establishment Republicans, they figure they might as well vote the Democrat who will at least throw them some largesse. 

There a many Americans who want government fixed. They want the Fed managed at least, if not dissolved. They are willing to go through the pain of winding down entitlement programs and realigning powers of the states to Constitutional intent. 

But they won’t go for half measures that create a bunch of pain and confusion but resolve nothing,eliminate no unconstitutional program, shut down no counter-productive cabinet department, and create new layers of bureaucracy through which we all must wade.

Maybe the blue collar voters and independents are wrong about establishment Republicans. Maybe I am, too.  And maybe so many people find Obama dangerous (I do) and anti-American (I do) that they will vote for anyone the GOP nominates. Our desire to avoid bad things is very powerful.

Then again, our desire to move toward good things is important.  If the only choice we on the right offer non-aligned voters is the lesser of two evils, Obama will be win re-election. 

There is no Reagan on the horizon, no Shane character to ride into town and save the day.  We have a choice between Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich.  Among those last three, I see none with a distinct advantage in gaining the nomination. Unless two quit. Soon.

But the larger problem is with the party itself.  Its establishment seems to have no idea how to inspire, and its insurgents have no idea how to team up.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Herman Cain is riding a wave of popularity because of his upset win in the Florida straw poll on Saturday.  He’s helped by Rick Perry’s free-fall and Mitt Romney’s establishmentarianism.  But Cain is a huge underdog.

That’s okay because America loves an underdog.

Here’s what must happen right now for Herman Cain to win:

1.  Social Media avalanche.  Get @THEHermanCain trending on Twitter, and keep it there for five consecutive days. How?  Simple. Use Hootsuite (or similar tool) to schedule original tweets about Herman Cain, with a shortened link to his site (http://bit.ly/r19euz) and his Twitter handle (@THEHermanCain).  Send 2 original tweets per day—one in the morning, one in the evening.  Post about Herman Cain, with link to his site (http://bit.ly/r19euz) on Facebook every other day (no more). (For more tips on effective social media campaigning, get my $1.99 ebook “Weaving the Roots.”)

2.  Bloggers posting human stories about why Florida voters picked Cain.  Real stories like this one from Byron York:

“I liked Cain, but I wasn’t sure he could win,” said Zena, from Washington County.  “But after I heard this, I thought it doesn’t matter if he wins or not — I am for this man. He was awesome.”

Or this one from the same York piece:

“I couldn’t make up my mind,” said Thelma, from Panama City, after the vote.  “It was the speech that made the hair stand up on my arms.  It wasn’t a tingle down my leg — it was an emotional excitement that this man knows how to get our country out of trouble.”

3.  Add a link to Herman Cain’s official website to your email signature. This is a powerful tool that everyone who sends emails can use.

4.  Attend a local event.  You’ll need to sign up for email blasts from the Cain campaign (http://bit.ly/r19euz) and read them. But don’t just read them. Forward important ones to 5 friends.  (Only important ones. Don’t spam the undecided.)

5.  Donate Money.  I know conservatives and independents hate the idea of money in politics. Without money, Cain cannot compete.  I’ll say it again:  without millions of small donations, Herman Cain will lose.  Of all five must-do actions on this list, this is the most important.  Give whatever you can, then tell the world, “I just donated to Herman Cain online http://bit.ly/r19euz.”

In 2008, the Republicans nominated John McCain—an echo.  In 1996, Republicans nominated Bob Dole—an echo.  In 1988, 2000, and 2004 Republicans nominated echoes. (Did I say “Republicans?”  I meant king-makers.)

If you want to make a difference—and blow Obama out of the water in November 2012—don’t give the American voter an echo—give him a choice.

While the Republican presidential field has many good men an women in its ranks, as do many Congressional and state races across the country, most candidates are corporate-sponsored echoes of big government and crony capitalism.

Our grassroots movement has come too far to return now to business as usual.

Last night, I had the rare and wonderful honor of introducing Phyllis Schlafly at a fundraiser for Ed Martin.  Mrs. Schlafly sits in the conservative pantheon with William F. Buckley, Ronald Reagan, Russell Kirk, and Barry Goldwater.  Her 1964 book, A Choice Not an Echo: The inside story of how American Presidents are chosen, laid the blueprint for Ronald Reagan’s near-miss in 1976 and victory in 1980.

In 2012, the GOP can give Americans a choice, or it can destroy itself with mere echoes.  At this moment in history, there is no third way.

Note: Views expressed are mine and do not reflect the official position of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition.

Popularity: 2% [?]